NFL Week 4
7:04 PM EDT Friday, September 29 2006
I've read Simmons' (I'm done calling him the Sports Guy) most recent article on NFL Week 4. First of all, it has prompted me to take an action I've been meaning to do for a while on my blog. Just like Simmons does, I'm going to post my NFL picks for each week, and then keep track of my record as the season goes on. I've been picking the games on wagerline and you can see my record so far.
Note that I don't have all the games picked, because the first week of the season I was in Vegas and couldn't get online without paying $10 a day, so I didn't enter my picks, but I did bet at the sports books. I actually did very well, despite Mike Nolan's inexplicable late field goal, and I could legitimately include the games that I picked that weekend. I hit a 4 game parley on college games on saturday and ended up 6-3 on the 9 games I bet on on Sunday. But since I didn't get them entered into wagerline, I feel that they shouldn't count. So anyway, here's my record has it stands now:
18-13-1 58.06%
Not bad so far. Simmons?
23-21-2 52.27%
That's actually pretty good for him. If I remember correctly, he finished last season below .500, but I don't have ESPN insider to be able to confirm that. Incidently, his wife, the Sports Gal has a better record that he does:
25-19-2 56.82%
She also has a funny bit in the sidebar about Tivo and Lost in the article. When does the Sports Gal get her own website? I'd read that.
Anyway, now that I've exposed Simmons for the fraud that he is, showing that both myself and his wife know more about football than he does, let's examine some of the outlandish claims he makes in this article:
McNair is good for eight to 10 uncatchable throws a game: one-hoppers, floaters, sailers, you name it. He looks terrible. Washed-up, even. It just hasn't manifested itself yet.
But it's coming. Oh, yes ... it's coming.
You have to believe me.
From a gambling standpoint, be very careful about trusting the 2006 Ravens.
And yes, I'm using short paragraphs to stress the urgency here.
Be careful.
Be very careful.
Very.
Careful.
There's even an image with a caption re-iterationing this point. Here's the deal with McNair. I'll admit some of his throws, as with any QB, are a little off. But one thing I can say is that he seems to be intentionally missing his throws in places where the ball won't get picked off. In other words, he throws it in places that only his receiver can catch the ball, where it can't be picked off. An incompletion is much better than a pick, especially when you've been playing in games with the lead and one of the best defenses in the NFL. Kyle Boller, are you taking notes?
And last week, I seem to remember him leading 3 spearate scoring drives in the 4th quarter, on the road, to overcome a 14-3 deficit. This would have been completely inconceivable just a year ago with Kyle Boller at the helm. Cleveland may not win a lot of games this year, but I can say that they were playing well on that Sunday, at home against a division rival, a division rival that used to be the team in Cleveland until their owner moved the team to Baltimore.
So my point is don't understand all this negativity against McNair. Later in the article he says, speaking of the Chargers:
I think they're the best team right now, and I think they throttle the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday
Let me get this straight, the Chargers win a road game at Oakland and a home game against Tennessee, two teams who clearly, already at Week 4, have a 0% change of making the playoffs, and the Chargers are the best team in the NFL? The have an untested QB, who is going on the road against a good defensive team, yet McNair is the one that is going to lose the game? All because Phillip Rivers was drafted ahead of Kellen Winslow Jr.? What? I seem to remember Robert Gallery being picked AHEAD of Phillip Rivers, how's that working out?
The picks:
Arizona +7.5 over ATLANTA
Kurt Warner is going to remain the start despite some speculation at the beginning of the week that the Matt Leinert era was about to begin in Arizona. Atlanta is looking to rebound from the embarassing loss at New Orleans on Monday night. Arizona has gave up 107 yards rushing to SF at home in a game in which Arizona lead most of the way and 146 yards rushing at Seattle in a loss, but head St. Louis to just 63 yards on 28 attempts in a win at home last week. The keys to the game are going to be can Arizona stop the Atlanta rushing attack and can Kurt Warner hold on to the ball. I'm taking the 7.5 points, but this one would go either way.
Dallas -9.5 over TENNESSEE
Too much T.O
JETS +9 over Indy
The Jets have looked better than expected and there's a 50% chance of rain
Miami -3.5 over HOUSTON
Houston, along with Oakland, must be bet against every week until they play one decent game.
BUFFALO -1 over Minnesota
When in doubt on a game with no spread, go with the home team
New Orleans +7 over Carolina
Everyone thinks the Saints were just riding on emotion last week, but I think they are actually an improved team, playing with a purpose. NO is 3-0 against the spread and Carolina, a perennially over-ranked team, is 0-3 ATS.
BALTIMORE +2.5 over San Diego
Too much Phillip Rivers
SF +7 over Kansas City
Joe's going to kill me for this one, but I think the Chiefs have a good chance to win this game, but wouldn't be surpised if they don't cover. I'd take the chiefs at -6.5, but not at -7. Without Trent Green the Chiefs just don't have enough offense to blow the niners out.
RAMS +5.5 over Lions
Simmons said it himself, the Lions are 21-62 since Matt Millen took over. He ranked the Lions at #30, ahead of just Oakland and Houston, but St. Louis at #18, yet then proceeds to pick the Lions on the road. Huh? Do Lions fans want Joey Harrington back yet?
Browns -2.5 over OAKLAND
Too Much Art Shell
Jags -3 over REDSKINS
Washington will get shutout at home
BENGALS -5.5 over Pats
The Bengals might be the best team in the league
CHICAGO -3.5 over Seattle
NEVER BET ON SEATTLE ON THE ROAD. EVER.
PHILLY -11 over GB
It's a lot of points, but I think Farve throws a late INT that gets returned for a TD to give the Eagles a two touchdown or more win
