Let's Go Yankees
6:57 PM EDT Tuesday, August 28 2007
I agree. Would it be that hard to believe the Sox would pull off a monumental collapse in September, triggered by a sweep in the Bronx? Let's-go, Yank-ees.
WPA and Grand Slams
3:26 PM EDT Wednesday, July 19 2006
I found out about an interesting site today called FanGraphs.com. It tracks an interesting stat called Win Probability Added (WPA). Here's how it basically works. To calculate WPA you first have to have the probability table for each unique game situation. The game situation is determined by the inning, the score, the runners on base. The table is formed by determining the percentage of time a team has won in that given situation.
For example, if you looked at every game where the home team is down by 2 runs, with 2 out and runners on first and second, you might see that the home team goes on to win 35% of those games (I just made that up, I don't have the actual table). Then, say that batter hits a home run, so the home team is now up 1 run, with nobody on and 2 out. Now that is a new situation, in which the home team might win 60% of the time. In that at-bat, the batter has just increase his team's chance of winning by 25%. Had he struck out in that at-bat instead of hitting a home run, he would have decreased his team's chances of winning.
WPA is an accumulated running total of how much you increase and decrease your team's chances of winning with each at-bat during the season. I think this stat is valid in the recent discussions about A-Rod value to the Yankees. As of today, here are the top 5 batters in WPA:
- Albert Pujols - 640
- David Ortiz - 354
- Derek Jeter - 324
- Jermaine Dye - 318
- Barry Bonds - 317
This seems pretty accurate to me, it is generally accepted that Pujols and Ortiz are the two batters contributing most to their teams. Interestingly, A-Rod's WPA is 52.3. So there your have it, emperical evidence that A-Rod is simply not doing enough to help the team win. Also, Randy Johnson's WPA is -105.7, whereas Chien-Ming Wang's WPA is 152.
Also, in reading about this, I was reading about the Ultimate Grand Slam, which is a walk-off grand slam with your team down 3 runs, which is 90 WPA, the most you can earn in one at-bat. This article points out that Roger Conner hit the first ever grand slam and it was an ultimate grand slam. Also, it gives the answer to a trivia question I have wondered about for a long time. Whose career HR record did Babe Ruth break? The answer is Roger Conner, who had 138 when he retired in 1897.
Giambi bunting and using Mariano
4:32 PM EDT Monday, May 8 2006
I was reading this article and can't help replying:
I realize that Giambi is a power hitter with a pull-conscious swing. But seeing how teams shift when he comes to bat, it leaves me wondering why he doesn't bunt. I wouldn't ask him to change his swing and actually hit the ball to the left side, but bunting the ball to third base wouldn't have a negative effect on his swing. It would force teams to stop the shift they employ against him. Why wouldn't Joe Torre and Don Mattingly work with him and have him try it a few times in games? -- Dan N., Jericho, N.Y.
While I haven't seen Giambi bunt this year, I did see him do it a couple of times last season. I think the reason the Yankees don't do more of this is because at the moment, why would you limit Giambi to a bunt single?
With his eye at the plate as good as anybody's in the game, Giambi works walks any time pitchers try to pitch around him. His 34 walks lead the American League, and his slugging and on-base percentages top the league, too.
Giambi has shown this season that his power stroke is back. Any swing he takes can result in a home run or a double (14 of his 23 hits are for extra bases), so why settle for less? I don't think that having him bunt would discourage teams from shifting. After all, if they give him the bunt single, it's no different than a walk, which he manages to do all the time anyway.
In certain situations, Giambi should bunt. Now, I don't know how good of a bunter he is, but it shouldn't take that much practice to learn how to bunt the ball anywhere on the left side of the infield past the pitcher. With two outs and nobody on, I say swing for the fences, but lets say Giambi comes up in the 9th with two outs and nobody on and we're down 3 runs. YOU HAVE TO BUNT. In this case, a home run, single and walk are all equivalent and based on his OBP, we know there is about a 50% chance of him getting one of those. (In reality, I think it is lower than that. I think Giambi's OBP will be more like .400-.450 by season's end). I would hope that you have a better than 50% chance of bunting a ball past the pitcher on the left side. Maybe that's why we doesn't bunt, because he feels like he has a better chance of getting a walk or hitting it through the shift, but that just seems crazy to me. Spend an hour one day learning how to bunt. At the risk of sounding like Michael Kay (they guy who never played a day of baseball past little league in his life who finds it baffling why Randy Johnson doesn't throw a strike on a 3-1 count. Uh, maybe he tried to throw a strike and missed? Seriously, listen to next time Michael Kay criticizes a pitcher for missing with location. He just thinks every big league pitcher can throw it wherever he wants and that if he didn't keep the ball down on a 2-1, that it did it on purpose. I think Al Leiter said it best. When asked by Michael Kay why some pitcher doesn't always throw a certain pitch in a certain location, his response "Because they're not robots"), it can't be that hard.
And while we're complaining about the first place Yankees, I'd like to mention Torre's (mis-)use of Mariano, or I guess the idea of a closer in general. Assuming your closer is your best relief pitcher, the idea of saving him until the 9th inning is ridiculous, especially against a team like the Red Sox. Take last week's loss to the Red Sox for example. 3-3, bottom of the 8th, 1 out, runners on 1st and 2nd, Loretta, Ortiz, Ramirez due up. Torre goes to the pen and gets Sturtze and eventually Myers, who give up 4 runs, gave effectively over as Papelbon comes in for the 9th to shut the door. Why not bring in Rivera to face Loretta, Ortiz, Rameriz? It's a tie game and if you don't keep it that way with only one more turn up at the plate, the games pretty much over. You bring in Rivera and he gets those 3 guys, maybe even let him finish the 9th, and have Stutrz and company try to deal with the bottom of the sox order for the 10th, you give your 1000-run offense two chances to come up with one run. The point is that no one in baseball seems to do this. You have the other team's best hitters due up with RISP in the 8th, you bring in your 2nd best reliever to try and get them out. He never does, so you end up losing and your stud closer never pitches. What's the point of that? Wouldn't you rather have your best pitcher get out their best hitters and then give your 2nd best guy a chance at the bottom of the order in the ninth?
Alright, one more example. Let's say Tuesday's game turns out to be the pitchers duel we expect and Randy has thrown 117 pitches through 7 and the Yanks lead 2-1 going into the bottom of the 8th with Loretta, Ortiz, and Ramirez due up. DON'T LET THEIR BEST PLAYERS BEAT YOUR SECOND BEST PLAYERS. Bring in Rivera in the 8th. Then, Trot Nixon, Mike Lowell and the other stiffs at the bottom of the sox order come up for the 9th, and let Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Villone, Mike Myers, etc., go after those guys. Or, if Mariano got through the 8th with only 9 pitches, let him finish the 9th. But don't let Big Papi and Manny get the game winning hit in the 8th off some other reliever with Mariano sitting in the pen.
2006 Yankees Preview
8:09 PM EST Tuesday, March 28 2006
The 2006 MLB season is almost upon us, so it's time to take a look at what's in store for the Yankees this year.
First of all, let's look at what has changed. As far as the Yankees go, it was a relatively quiet offseason. The biggest story was obviously the signing of Johnny Damon. Other changes include Kevin Brown's retirement, Al Leiter's retirement, Tino Martinez's move to Baseball Tonight, and the dumping of Mark Bellhorn and Tony Womack. Despite his pathetic numbers last year, I was sad to see John Flaherty sign with the Red Sox and then subsequently retire. I know his numbers didn't show it, but I felt like he was a good guy to have on the team. I swear every time I looked up he was hitting a rope into the left field gap.
To fill the void at backup catcher, we signed Kelly Stinnett, which seems like a pretty good move. He's a little better offensively and he has caught Randy before (they were on the Diamondbacks together in 1999-2000). Regarding working with Randy in the past, Kelly said "We’ve had a good relationship in the past and hopefully we can carry it over." Since Flaherty was Randy's personal catcher last year, it's important that he be comfortable catching Randy. But it sounds like Randy and Jorge are trying to work together as well.
Other offseason moves include re-signing Miguel Cairo to backup Cano and overhauling the bullpen. We lost setup man Tom Gordon to free agency, but we added Wichita, Kansas native-Kyle Farnsworth, Octaio Dotel, Mike Myers (via the Womack trade) and admitted Yankee's fan Ron Villone.
We also made some coaching changes. The biggest one was replacing Mel Stottlemyre at pitching coach with Yankees legend Ron Guidry. After hiring Don Mattingly as the htting coach last year, I guess this is the new trend. I think this was for the best. There was certain plenty of evidence against Mel, take a look at the numbers:
INN W-L ERA SO BB HR NYY Contreras 166.2 15-7 4.64 154 72 26 CHW Contreras 279.1 20-11 4.06 222 117 32 NYY Clemens 391.2 30-15 4.11 382 121 42 HOU Clemens 425.2 31-12 2.43 403 141 26 NYY Pettitte 343.0 34-13 3.73 277 82 27 HOU Pettitte 305.1 23-13 2.80 250 72 25 NYY Weaver 359.0 18-20 4.61 225 95 32 LAD Weaver 444.0 27-24 4.11 310 110 54
I think you could throw Ted Lilly in there too. Along with Jared Wright and Carl Pavano, it seems like the Yankees have a lot of pitchers how have success in places other than New York. To help Guidry, we also have Joe Kerrigan the bullpen coach, who if I remember correctly, was once considered one of the best pitching coaches in the game. Also, we have Tona Pena at first base coach, Larry Bowa at third base coach and Lee Mazilli as bench coach. Seems like the Yankees have compiled quite a bit of coaching talent, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
So the starting lineup boils down to this:
CF Johnny Damon SS Derek Jeter 1B Jason Giambi 3B Alex Rodriguez RF Gary Sheffield LF Hideki Matsui C Jorge Posada DH Bernie Williams 2B Robinson Cano
We do know that Damon will lead off and Jeter will bat second. Giambi, Arod, Sheff and Godzilla will be 3-6, we just don't know what order yet. Posada, Cano and the DH, who it seems like will be Bernie for most of the time, will be at the bottom of the order. Andy Phillips will get some time at 1B & DH. Kelly Stinnett should see some playing time giving Posada an occasional off. I would suspect that Posada will DH for a lot of the games that he has off, and Bernie still finds his way into the lineup giving Sheff a day off.
The lineup is definately solid, arguably the best in baseball. Assuming Giambi's second half resurgance wasn't a fluke and everybody can stay healthy, we should lead the league in runs scored.
The question mark of the team is definately pitching. The starting rotation will have Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina at the top. Age is question mark for both of these pitchers. We need Randy to be dominant and Mussina to be consistent. After that, we have Chein-Ming Wang and Shawn Chacon, both who had great seasons last year for the Yanks, hopefully they can keep it up. If the fifth spot, look for Carl Pavano or Jared Wright, both who are (seemingly perpetually) recovering from injury. Aaron Small is also available as an occasional spot starter/long relief pitcher.
The bullpen still has future hall of famer Mariano Rivera as the closer, but a whole new cast of characters around him. Along with the free agent pickups mentioned earlier (Farnsworth, Dotel, Villone, Myers), we have Tanyen Sturtze, Scott Proctor and Colter Bean. Nobody here scares anybody, and the bullpen definately looks to be the week spot for the Yanks. Hopefully we can put up 10 runs a game and keep these guys well rested. My money is on Farnswoth, Dotel and Villone to be the most effective.
For once, it sounds like the Yanks also have a number of good prospects as well. Everybody was raving about 19-year old Phillip Hughes this spring. Also, undrafted minor league free agent Matt DeSalvo has a lot of people talking as well, and might even get a big league start.
All-in-all, I think the state of the union with the Yankees looks good. There a number of super star veterans on this team with no rings (Sheffield, Arod, Mussina, and Giambi) and I think this could be the year that they get it. I'm excited, let's play ball.
Johnny Damon's Arm Is Already Falling Off
9:39 PM EST Tuesday, March 14 2006
I was kind hoping we wouldn't have to worry about this for a year or two, but Johnny Damon's ailing shoulder is bothering him, enough to keep him on the bench in the US's most recent loss in the World Baseball Classic. Maybe if we can surgerically combine Damon and Bernie's arms, we can get one decent center fielder.
